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The dream of many a sports bettor is to land a juicy parlay that returns a bumper pay day. While there is divided opinion on the merits of betting parlays one thing is for certain. If you could find outcomes where the effect of one leg winning actually increases the chances of the other legs also winning, then betting parlays would be a no brainer. Seems like the perfect recipe to beat the odds right?
For example, imagine if you could bet on the LA Rams to win their division and then parlay that with them going on to win the Super Bowl. By winning their division they not only qualify for playoffs they earn themselves home field advantage and avoid the tougher road of going through the wild card round. Of course this would mean their chance of winning the Super Bowl has increased dramatically and therefore your imaginative parlay would become a really good bet.
Sadly this apparent loophole was closed by sportsbooks a long time ago, if it was ever even open at all. The reason being the outcomes are correlated. No sportsbook will ever expose themselves to this type of increased risk. Or would they?
Just when you thought you had seen the best the parlay world has to offer, along comes the same game parlay!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A parlay where each of the included legs are pulled from the same game and as a result are correlated to some degree. The odds are adjusted to account for the correlation otherwise the edge would move too much in favor of the bettor. The Same Game Parlay often links outcomes such as the point spread, over and under points total and individual player props from the one game. They give the bettor a deep investment and interest every play.
If nothing else, the Same Game Parlay is one way to crank up the entertainment value of an otherwise run of the mill game.
What are Correlated Odds?
Correlated Odds occur when the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another. From a sportsbook's perspective this means if one bet wins it increases the likelihood that another bet will also win.
A simple example from the NFL would be betting on a particular player to score a touchdown and their team to win the game. Clearly if the player gets his touchdown then his team is at least 6 points better off which assists the moneyline bet to win also.
Here is a more complex example from the NBA. An underdog wins a game against a usually high scoring and favored opponent because the favored team has an off night shooting. Perhaps the underdog brought unexpected pressure on defense rather than getting involved in a high scoring shootout which they most certainly would lose. The fact the defensive pressure worked, meant that they were able to pull off the upset.
This unlikely moneyline result (outright winner) actually also favors the under on the points total and may also favor an unders bet on the key scorer from the favored team. It looks like this:
Clearly if the bettor were able to foresee this defensive tactic working before the game and understand the ramifications for the various markets there would be nothing stopping them betting on each of the above outcomes individually. Parlaying them however, is a whole different story.
The fact that a parlay works by multiplying odds means that the marginal edge the bettor may have landed by using clever betting intuition becomes hugely magnified as the odds are multiplied through each of the legs.
In the instance of the above NBA example the following odds hypothetically may have been on offer:
Let's imagine, for the sake of the example, that the bettor recognised a plus expected value (+EV) scenario on the moneyline, that is, the odds were greater than the expected probability of winning. Then this ‘value' they had obtained on the first bet multiplies through both of the coin flip points total bets. Of course intuitively seeing that the underdog would shut down the favorites offence the bettor had also spotted value in both those markets as well, essentially getting a great price on both of them. The multiplier effect makes this a potentially amazing return.
Sportsbooks know the math on this better than most and as a result will never let correlated odds play. They do not want to be exposed to the chance that a bettor could outlay a smallish stake and reap a huge reward by coupling together outcomes that are linked. Fair enough I guess.
So Why Do Sportsbooks Offer Same Game Parlays?
The simple reason is they are a wonderful gimmick. This doesn't mean they can't work for you but like all things sports betting if the bookmaker is going to offer it then they most certainly believe they have an edge.
The edge created by the bookmaker is via an adjustment of the odds allowing them to take a higher margin on each leg of the parlay. This in effect reduces the multiplier influence and nicely accounts for the issue of bets being correlated.
In an early season NFL game featuring the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins the Point Spread line was installed at an unbelievable -22.5 due to the complete lack of confidence in the Miami roster. The Same game Parlay situation played out as follows:
Now consider a parlay bet on the
- Cowboys -22.5
- Total points over 46.5
- 4th quarter points over 12.5:
Had these three outcomes been from seperate games and in no way correlated the bettor would expect to land themselves odds of +633. Incidentally well short of the +700 three coin flips should yield before bookmaker vig, but that's another story.
Due to the related nature of the parlay's legs (and they are unquestionably related) the actual odds on offer are +271. Clearly if the Cowboys were to cover they would need to score plenty of points, this means the points total is likely to be covered. There is then a great chance that the final quarter will involve some junk time play and the 4th quarter total goes over as well.
That being said +271 is a mile away from +633 and when you factor in that by just betting the point spread you will already receive close to double your money, as a bettor, you really are biting off quite a deal of extra risk for no real gain. In fact if correlation was not factored in, simply combining the point spread and the 4th quarter over would yield +280. Astonishingly that is better than the three leg parlay combined odds.
It is no wonder sportsbooks love the Same Game Parlay!
Why Bet a Same Game Parlay?
Now that we have established that the dice is loaded in favor of the house when betting Same Game Parlays it begs the question: Why would you ever bet one?
That is a great question and all things being equal, it's probably not a great idea to bet one ever. There are however a few reasons (or opportunities) that make them worth an investment of your hard earned money.
1. They are Undeniably Fun
There is no question having action on a game just adds to the entertainment. If you view a small stake bet as an investment in fun with the benefit of some bonus cash if it wins, then the Same Game Parlay is for you.
You could imagine watching a mid-winter Sunday Night Football game with some buddies in your basement and loading up a same game parlay that includes some combination of moneyline, points spread, total points and player props. Riding that baby home is certainly a ton of fun. If that is what you are after then next time consider a same game parlay.
2. Make The Most of Your Bonus Bet
If you have been lucky enough to land yourself a bonus bet through your online sportsbook then you could go a lot worse than throwing that free bet onto a same game parlay. In a situation where you are going to attend the game, invest your afternoon watching on TV or simply have an emotional attachment to a team, then sparing your hard earned and making the most of your bonus bet is certainly the way to go.
Unless they are deposit bonuses (in which case invest elsewhere), bonus bets are generally not large and only return the profit from the bet and not the stake. This means you are well served looking for longer odds to try and land a decent pay day. The Same Game Parlay is a great way to build that multiplier, ratchet up the entertainment value and perhaps land yourself some fun money.
3. Take Advantage of Promotions
Freebet Parlay 2 Team
The fact that the Same Game Parlay is significantly in favor of the sportsbook means they love bettors trying their luck with them. In order to encourage action, books will offer quite enticing promotions. For example these may take the form of insurance as either real cash back or bonus bets for missing the parlay by one leg. There are many and varied promotions linked to same game parlay's across international sportsbooks.
Freebet Mix Parlay 2020
The US is yet to see the Same Game Parlay in any major way. This will change. This form of betting is coming to the US market as it matures. Expect huge promotions tied to same game parlays. Do yourself a favor and make the most of them. Skew the odds back in your direction a little bit.
Who Offers The Same Game Parlay?
As it stands at the moment the only sportsbook offering the Same Game Parlay in the US is Fanduel. Their offering is available on all regular season NFL games and includes a huge range of markets.
Who Offers The Same Game Parlay?
As it stands at the moment the only sportsbook offering the Same Game Parlay in the US is Fanduel. Their offering is available on all regular season NFL games and includes a huge range of markets.
Expect the number of books offering this bet type to explode.
The Game Starts Now!
The Same Game Parlay is new to the shores of the United States. This does not mean it's totally new. Like most sports betting innovations the Same Game Parlay has been tried and tested in mature offshore markets. They may not provide bettors with exceptional value but as always if you have a sense of value and a strong betting intuition you may just find a way to carve out some profit from the Same Game Parlay. Watch this space!
Presented in partnership with BetMGM…
Folks, the Big Game is tomorrow and I'm not gonna beat around the bush: It's the biggest sports betting day of the year, so best be getting those bets in. Isn't it nice that you no longer have to hop on a plane to Vegas to get in on the action?
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